Taking office in 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed vowed to bridge the ethnic and regional divides among Ethiopians. His diplomatic endeavors with neighboring Eritrea were so impactful that he received the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. However, the onset of the Tigray conflict has drastically shifted the landscape, leading to the militarization of numerous regions across Ethiopia. This has not only fueled violent unrest but also escalated into armed conflicts rife with alarming human rights abuses and the targeting of civilians.

Fano, an Amhara region militia lacking a formal command hierarchy, received training and equipment from the Ethiopian government during the two-year civil war in the adjacent Tigray region. This conflict concluded with a ceasefire last November however, the subsequent peace agreement, signed in Pretoria between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray region, has inadvertently ignited fresh hostilities as the resolution didn’t include the other regions that have been affected by the conflict. Following the end of the grueling two-year conflict in the Tigray region—where Amhara militias and regional forces were pivotal allies of the federal troops—the central government has sought to consolidate its security apparatus. The government’s decision to disband regional militias has also sparked new conflicts between the Fano militias in the Amhara region and the federal authorities.

In Ethiopia, a sense of mistrust exists between the federal government and the majority of the ethnic Amhara regions. The Amhara people have borne the brunt of the two-year-long armed conflict in northern Ethiopia. Additionally, the region is grappling with an influx of ethnic Amhara individuals fleeing violence and targeted attacks in the neighboring Oromia region. Despite these challenges, the federal government has not taken sufficient measures to ensure the safety of Amharan’s in Oromia, providing an opportunity for the Fano militia to step in as protectors of the Amhara people and attract new recruits. In addition to these grievances is the federal government’s failure to provide adequate resources to the Amhara region. Resources such as fertilizers haven’t been adequately supplied to Amhara farmers which exacerbates economic challenges, adding another layer of grievance and political unrest. In this context, the Fano militia not only gains traction as a protector force but also as a symbol of resistance against perceived federal neglect.

In a move indicative of growing repression, authorities severed mobile internet access in early April and detained journalists. On August 4, Ethiopia’s federal cabinet declared a six-month state of emergency, subjecting the Amhara region to a military command post directly overseen by the Prime Minister. This action unfolded in the backdrop of escalating unrest and mass protests in the Amhara region, driven primarily by plans to integrate local forces into the national army. Previous emergency declarations under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed led to widespread arrests, extended arbitrary detentions, and politically motivated prosecutions, not to mention unlawful restrictions on mobility and communication.

Approved by parliament, the emergency declaration could significantly encroach upon basic rights. It provides the government extensive authority to make arrests without court orders, impose curfews, prohibit public gatherings, and execute searches without warrants. Although the current scope is confined to the Amhara region, the declaration includes a provision to extend its reach to “any area of the country as necessary.” Even in the capital, Addis Ababa, authorities have arrested thousands without following proper legal procedures; public schools have even been repurposed as ad-hoc detention centers as official prisons have reached full capacity. Federal police in Addis Ababa have arrested Christian Tadele, an opposition parliamentarian and vocal critic of both the ruling party and its actions in the Amhara region. The Ethiopian federal government is currently adopting a resolute stance on the unrest sweeping through the Amhara region. Temesgen Tiruneh, Ethiopia’s intelligence chief responsible for enforcing the state of emergency, declared that Fano’s ambition is to “topple the regional government through force and then make inroads into the federal system.”

Yet, it’s the local Amhara residents who are bearing the brunt of this escalating conflict. “Debre Birhan has turned into a war zone exchanges of fire occur almost constantly,” remarked a local official, speaking anonymously due to security risks. Residents indicate that Fano has assumed control over the tourist hubs of Gondar and Lalibela. Gunfire was reported on the outskirts of Lalibela near the airport on Monday, breaking a period of relative quiet. Moreover, intense combat has been observed north of Gondar, as federal forces endeavor to regain control over the area. “The sound of gunfire is constant, and smoke can be seen,” noted a Gondar resident, adding that local authorities have taken refuge in the town’s main police station.

The federal government must urgently pivot from its current stance to initiate genuine negotiations, seeking a peaceful resolution to the turmoil in the Amhara region. The residents there are caught in a cycle of violence, enduring a second wave of conflict after already having suffered from prior unrest. This perpetual state of insecurity has exacted an immense toll on local communities, from loss of life and displacement to the interruption of essential services and economic decline. Unresolved tensions serve only to deepen societal divisions and embolden extremist factions, creating a vacuum that could potentially be filled by even more radical elements. Therefore, the government’s stubborn insistence on military solutions could be counterproductive, aggravating the situation and eliminating any chance for peaceful coexistence. Moreover, the international reputation of Ethiopia is on the line, and the ongoing crisis further erodes its standing, making diplomatic and economic partnerships increasingly challenging.

A sustained and equitable dialogue involving all stakeholders, including regional power brokers and grassroots organizations, could provide a foundation for a more stable future. The immediate objective should be a ceasefire and humanitarian access, followed by comprehensive peace talks addressing the root causes of the conflict. Transparency, inclusiveness, and a commitment to justice and reconciliation should be the pillars upon which these talks are built. A political solution, rather than a military one, is the most viable path to lasting peace, for the sake of Amhara residents and the nation as a whole.